Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
